ISSN 1006-298X      CN 32-1425/R

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肾脏病与透析肾移植杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 315-320.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-298X.2025.04.003

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于磷脂酶 A2 受体多源结构域抗体的膜性肾病缓解预测模型及风险因素分析

  

  • 出版日期:2025-08-28 发布日期:2025-08-28

Predictive model for membranous nephropathy remission based on multi-domain antibodies and analysis of risk factors

  • Online:2025-08-28 Published:2025-08-28

摘要: 目的:构建膜性肾病(MN)患者免疫干预治疗 6 个月后肾脏病缓解的预测模型。
方法:纳入 115 例经肾脏病理确诊的 MN 患者,收集 69 例患者免疫干预 6 个月后的血清标本,检测血清磷脂酶 A2 受体(PLA2R)及结构域抗体水平。采用 LASSO 回归筛选变量,构建多因素 logistic 回归模型,并通过 ROC 曲线等评估模型的预测能力。
结果:LASSO 回归筛选出 lnCTLD1-IgG-M0 和 lnCTLD1-IgG4-M0 为影响 MN 患者治疗 6 个月后肾脏缓解的独立危险因素。复合预测模型的预测能力优于传统 PLA2R 抗体指标。
结论:lnCTLD1-IgG-M0 和 lnCTLD1-IgG4-M0 是预测 MN 患者肾脏缓解的主要风险因素。基于 PLA2R 结构域抗体构建的预测模型具有良好的判别和校准能力,可为临床提供有效的预测工具,改善 MN 患者的肾脏预后。

关键词: font-family:Inter, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ", font-size:16px, background-color:#F9FAFB, ">膜性肾病, 磷脂酶 A2 受体抗体, 表位扩散

Abstract: Objective: To construct a model for predicting the probability of renal response at 6 months after immunosuppressive therapy in patients with membranous nephropathy (MN).
Methodology: A total of 115 MN patients confirmed by renal pathology were enrolled, and serum samples from 69 patients were collected 6 months after immunosuppressive therapy to measure phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R) and domain-specific antibody levels. LASSO regression was used to screen variables, and a multivariate logistic regression model was constructed. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated using ROC curves.
Results: LASSO regression identified lnCTLD1-IgG-M0 and lnCTLD1-IgG4-M0 as independent risk factors affecting renal response in MN patients after 6 months of treatment. The composite predictive model outperformed conventional PLA2R antibody indices in predictive capability.
Conclusion: lnCTLD1-IgG-M0 and lnCTLD1-IgG4-M0 are the main risk factors for predicting renal remission in MN patients. The prediction model based on PLA2R domain-specific antibodies exhibits excellent discriminative and calibration abilities, providing a valuable predictive tool for clinical practice to improve renal outcomes in MN patients.

Key words: font-family:Inter, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ", font-size:16px, background-color:#F9FAFB, ">membranous nephropathy, phospholipase A2 receptor antibody, epitope spreading