关键词: 2 型糖尿病肾病, 身体活动不足, 疾病负担, 伤残调整生命年, 趋势预测

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the trend of disease burden changes in type 2 diabetic kidney disease (T2DKD) attributed to low physical activity (LPA) from 1990 to 2023, predict the future direction of the burden trend, and provide scientific basis for formulating public prevention and control policies. Methods: Data on T2DKD deaths and disability⁃adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to LPA in China and globally from 1990 to 2023, as well as in high⁃SDI countries, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database. The changes in disease burden were analyzed, and historical trends were analyzed using the JoinPoint regression model. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for trend prediction from 2024 to 2035. Results: From 1990 to 2023, both the number of T2DKD deaths and DALYs attributed to LPA in China increased. The age⁃standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age⁃standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) showed a downward trend, remaining lower than global and high SDI region levels. The disease burden increased first and then decreased with age group. The DALYs burden level in Chinese males was consistently lower than that in females, and the death burden levels were similar. Compared with 1990, the peak age groups for both the number of deaths and DALYs in 2023 were postponed. From 2024 to 2035, the ASMR of T2DKD attributed to LPA in China is expected to decline slightly overall, and the ASDR is expected to fluctuate during the decline process. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2023, China's age⁃standardized disease burden attributed to LPA⁃related T2DKD has significantly decreased. However, due to demographic changes, the absolute disease burden is still increasing, and disease patterns are showing aging and gender differences. Future prevention and control strategies should build on existing achievements and develop targeted interventions for the elderly and female populations to reduce potential fluctuations in disease burden.